This is the routine. The Texas Rangers have finished atop the American League West three of the past five years, and appear poised to win the division again in 1999. If they hold true to form, they will face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs and then spend the winter trying to figure out what it’s going to take to reach the next level.
It happened that way in 1996. It happened that way in 1998. It could happen that way again if the Rangers don’t succeed in beefing up the starting rotation at midseason.
The Rangers are an exciting team. They swing for the fences and they score a lot of runs. They also win a lot of games, and have one of the best records in the American League to prove it.
They’ll certainly reach the postseason, barring a major second-half collapse, but their prospects for getting to the World Series are only as good as the nucleus of their starting rotation.
The pitching staff is built around 1998 standouts Rick Helling and Aaron Sele, who combined to win 39 games last year, but no one seriously expected that best-case scenario to play itself out again this season … and it hasn’t. The two have combined for 13 victories (which isn’t so bad) and gotten some help from veteran Mike Morgan (7-5), but the lack of a veteran pitching ace could again turn out to be a major weakness in the postseason.
General manager Doug Melvin is looking for help and he isn’t afraid to make a big deal. He pulled off the trade last year that sent lefthander Darren Oliver and third base prospect Fernando Tatis to the Cardinals for veteran pitcher Todd Stottlemyre and shortstop Royce Clayton. He also tried to engineer a deal over the winter to acquire five-time Cy Young winner Roger Clemens from the Toronto Blue Jays.
Who will it be in July?
Maybe no one. The Rangers would love to talk the Phillies into trading them Curt Schilling. They also could make a play for someone like Blue Jays ace David Wells. They could come up empty, since the teams with premier pitchers to deal are all going to ask for top outfield prospect Ruben Mateo. Then they will be right back where they were in October of last year — looking down the barrel at a superior pitching staff in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s already shaping up as another postseason rematch with the Yankees.
The Cleveland Indians have the best record in the league, so they’ll draw the wild card. That leaves the Yankees and Rangers. If the Yankees end up with the best record in the league, they can’t play the wild card team — since it always comes from the AL East. Yankees and Rangers either way.
So, last week’s four-game series between the Rangers and the Yankees was a likely preview of one of the Division Series. The Yankees won the first two. The Rangers won the last two. It was inconclusive, but it probably will be different when the stakes are higher in October.
Clemens vs. Helling. Cone vs. Sele. Several possible choices vs. Morgan. Clear advantage Yankees.
The Rangers have upgraded their offensive lineup with the acquisition of first baseman Rafael Palmeiro — who has been the club’s most productive hitter. They have caught lightning in a bottle with the outstanding performance of reliever Jeff Zimmerman (7-0). But they’ll need to do more to get past the first playoff tier.
Some high-level jobs may depend on it.
New owner Tom Hicks made it clear before the start of the season that he expects the defending division champions to take another step in the right direction this year. That has led to speculation that manager Johnny Oates could be in danger if he doesn’t lead the team at least as far as the American League Championship Series.
If that’s true, then Hicks hasn’t been paying attention the past few years. Oates has been one of the winningest managers in baseball since he made his major league debut with the Orioles in 1991. In his four seasons with the Rangers, he has presided over the franchise’s first two division titles and likely will make it three very soon.
Hicks is understandably impatient to reach the World Series. He has, after all, owned the team for months. But the Rangers have put together a very stable and successful organization, something he would be foolish to disrupt in the absence of a significant reversal of fortune.
The offensive lineup is among the best in baseball, with two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez anchoring a batting order that already includes five players who have reached double figures in home runs. The club can get through the division race on the strength of that explosive offensive attack, but will be hard-pressed to get through the Division Series without some outside pitching help.
Don’t be surprised if the Rangers are connected to virtually every available starting pitcher when midseason trade speculation gets hot and heavy. Wells, with his outstanding career record against the Yankees, would seem to be a perfect choice, but Royals ace Kevin Appier may be a more likely possibility.
One thing is certain, none of them will come cheap, if at all. For the Rangers to make a significant pitching acquisition, they will have to be willing to let go of some significant young talent. They did that last year — and have lived to regret letting go of Tatis — so they figure to be reluctant to do it two years in a row.
They may have to be content to try and pound their way through the playoffs again, but history — their history — says that it won’t be easy.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/columns/990621/rangersstillatarmsle.html